The Gold Coast property market is well known to through boom and bust cycles. The volatile mix of reliance on tourism, ease of development which create a supply exactly when not needed forms strong cyclicality to the property market that has much sharper rise and falls compared to other markets in Australia. The regular up and down cycles means the Gold Coast Property forecast is relatively straight forward, there will be a next boom and a bust, it is a matter of when.
The market has held up relatively well compared to traditional strong hold such as Sydney or Melbourne. See our Sydney property market forecast and Melbourne property market forecast for more details.
Gold Coast has been relatively quiet. The current conditions of the Gold Coast property market can only string along for so long if the Queensland border remains closed and international travel in and outside of Australia limited. We think the market’s attention has been focused elsewhere as there are bigger disasters expected in retail or student led sub markets like the Melbourne CBD.
Infrastructure Investments
One thing that has been encouraging for those that has kept an eye on the market is the strong investment by the Queensland and City of Gold Coast on infrastructure in the area. These include
- The new health sector surrounding the Gold Coast University
- The expansion of the Gold Coast light rail
- Conversion of the Commonwealth Games venues.
- Southport CBD rejuvenation
The combination and cumulative impact of these long term investments has been improving the overall amenity and as an attraction of long term residence and hence population growth in the region.
Interestingly the focus of government spending has been on areas outside of the tourism sector and on completion will increase the baseline of economic activities which are more consistent. This will reduce overall cyclicality of the economy and hence the property market.
Where is everyone?
The elephant in the room for the local South East Queensland economy is the traditional reliance on the tourism sector. We think the slow recovery in domestic travel as result of delays in border reopenings and general reluctance of the broader population of traveling unless there is a vaccine irrespective of Covid boredom means that travel is not coming back anytime soon.
The flipside to this is that as soon as people can travel, the release of the pent up demand will turbo charge the economy and the property market. As always by that time you see the results in the data it will be too late to get in to the market.
The Sum
We think there should be easier markets to focus on in the meantime but given the Gold Coast is off everyone’s radar there could be some good pickings.